The cause of the present financial crisis-rise of developing world/China
This is a theory which I want to present--that the rise of the present financial crisis is the rise of the developing world, especially China. I have collected lots of facts which support this theory-and some which don't, but the balance is heavily in favor of the theory.
The developing world has been a constant source of raw materials (coal, copper, iron-ore, etc.) and not very finished goods (textiles, shoes, etc) for a long time to the developed world. Forgetting about the money being exchanged-the real exchange between the developed world and the developing/underdeveloped world was raw materials (I will lump simple to produce goods like textiles, shoes, etc. in raw materials for simplicity of argument) being supplied by the developing world and exchanged for the finished goods of the developed world.
Given the large number of people living in the developing countries-primarily China, India, Latin America-and the relatively small number of people in the developed world (USA, Japan, Western Europe, Canada, Australia), this was a great way for them to become better. However, now the developing world has developed enough to make the finished goods themselves; therefore they are now stopping the supply of all these raw materials to the developed world. In other worlds-the developed world-which could sell its finished goods (cars, refrigerators, aeroplanes, advanced weapons) now has nothing to sell to the developing world; and consequently, they wont get all those raw materials from the developing world. This is why the crisis is severe in the developed world. Why there is a crisis at all in the developing world is a problem with my theory-but I have some explanations-and a prognostication-that the crisis in the developing world will end BEFORE the end of the crisis in the developed world ends.
Here are some points (some points are related to each other) to support this theory.
1. Chile has been a major supplier of copper to the world for 100 years. The major buyers were the developed world countries-USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France. In the last 5 years, China suddenly has become the top buyer of Chile copper concentrate-replacing even USA. The Chileans were exchanging copper of their mines with the finished goods from the developed world-refrigerators, televisions, cars, etc. Chile does not domestically make these products. With China becoming rich in the last decade-they had a new buyer for their copper. The surplus product found a new market in China; and better still for Chile-the products they needed-cars, refrigerators, and other finished goods, were supplied cheaper by China than by a developed country. Thus the rise of Chile was a double benefit-they got someone to pay dearer for what they had in plenty, and they got to buy cheaper whatever they needed-because China was producing exactly what Chile needed and didn't make at home.
2. The same argument of above is true for Brazil's iron-ore shipments-Brazil is the top producer of iron-ore in the world.
3. UK coal mine production has gone down from 100 million tons per year to 40 million tons per year from 1950 to 2000. The population and energy use of UK has gone up in this time-the coal required was being bought cheaper from South Africa than mining it at home. This trend is now reversing-coal prices went up last year and UK mines are being reopened, notwithstanding the recent fall in coal prices. The coal mining industry knows (or hopes) that this price dip will be recovered-but doesn't know when.
4. China was a major phosphate supplier to the world and the USA. Phosphate rock is a key basic material for producing phosphate fertilizers-and exists in large quantities in Morocco, China and USA. In the last few years it has not only stopped exporting phosphate rock-it is actually importing it.
5. China was a big supplier of steel in the 90's, until starting 2002-2003, it stopped exporting steel. It now is the biggest importer of steel.
6. India is in the top 10 buyers of Copper for Chilean Copper and Brazilian iron-ore.
7. China and India and Latin America are known to move up the value chain of things-which is the same as saying that they are supplying more and more finished goods to the world. As they make and supply these products-the developed world, which had a free ride on the cheap labor of these countries for a few hundred years, can't have it anymore. They have nothing to offer in exchange (the rapid accumulation of foreign reserves by the developing world Government is what is supporting this-the goods of developing countries are being exchanged for paper dollars and euros of the developed world by their silly central banks, but this needs to and will stop-see my earlier post on this).
The crisis in the developing world is difficult to explain from this theory. However, the explanation there I have is that it is the interrelation of the banking system and the silly accumulation of reserves by the developing world countries, mostly held in Government bonds of the developed world, which is actually hurting them now, because they have subsidized exporters at the expense of home use of their materials, and killed of importers. The importers in China and India find it more expensive to import useful things like technology, aeroplanes, etc. which could be used very productively there to increase the net production of the labor of these countries. Any encouragement given to exports is a discouragement given to exports and home use of these goods.
The interrelated of the banking systems means that all capital is going into city and real estate-leaving the rural areas and the mining and raw material producing areas of the world short of capital. Big banks are based in big cities like New York, San Pablo, Shanghai and Brazil-and they have transmitted the stupid lending practices to each other. They invest in big cities in real estate-but that can only go on if the city population keeps increasing and is well supplied by the raw materials from the countryside (food is a raw material for cities) and the mining and energy producing areas.
I will update and edit this post as time permits-but the crux of the argument is here. There are many other data points I will put to support the theory.
The developing world has been a constant source of raw materials (coal, copper, iron-ore, etc.) and not very finished goods (textiles, shoes, etc) for a long time to the developed world. Forgetting about the money being exchanged-the real exchange between the developed world and the developing/underdeveloped world was raw materials (I will lump simple to produce goods like textiles, shoes, etc. in raw materials for simplicity of argument) being supplied by the developing world and exchanged for the finished goods of the developed world.
Given the large number of people living in the developing countries-primarily China, India, Latin America-and the relatively small number of people in the developed world (USA, Japan, Western Europe, Canada, Australia), this was a great way for them to become better. However, now the developing world has developed enough to make the finished goods themselves; therefore they are now stopping the supply of all these raw materials to the developed world. In other worlds-the developed world-which could sell its finished goods (cars, refrigerators, aeroplanes, advanced weapons) now has nothing to sell to the developing world; and consequently, they wont get all those raw materials from the developing world. This is why the crisis is severe in the developed world. Why there is a crisis at all in the developing world is a problem with my theory-but I have some explanations-and a prognostication-that the crisis in the developing world will end BEFORE the end of the crisis in the developed world ends.
Here are some points (some points are related to each other) to support this theory.
1. Chile has been a major supplier of copper to the world for 100 years. The major buyers were the developed world countries-USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France. In the last 5 years, China suddenly has become the top buyer of Chile copper concentrate-replacing even USA. The Chileans were exchanging copper of their mines with the finished goods from the developed world-refrigerators, televisions, cars, etc. Chile does not domestically make these products. With China becoming rich in the last decade-they had a new buyer for their copper. The surplus product found a new market in China; and better still for Chile-the products they needed-cars, refrigerators, and other finished goods, were supplied cheaper by China than by a developed country. Thus the rise of Chile was a double benefit-they got someone to pay dearer for what they had in plenty, and they got to buy cheaper whatever they needed-because China was producing exactly what Chile needed and didn't make at home.
2. The same argument of above is true for Brazil's iron-ore shipments-Brazil is the top producer of iron-ore in the world.
3. UK coal mine production has gone down from 100 million tons per year to 40 million tons per year from 1950 to 2000. The population and energy use of UK has gone up in this time-the coal required was being bought cheaper from South Africa than mining it at home. This trend is now reversing-coal prices went up last year and UK mines are being reopened, notwithstanding the recent fall in coal prices. The coal mining industry knows (or hopes) that this price dip will be recovered-but doesn't know when.
4. China was a major phosphate supplier to the world and the USA. Phosphate rock is a key basic material for producing phosphate fertilizers-and exists in large quantities in Morocco, China and USA. In the last few years it has not only stopped exporting phosphate rock-it is actually importing it.
5. China was a big supplier of steel in the 90's, until starting 2002-2003, it stopped exporting steel. It now is the biggest importer of steel.
6. India is in the top 10 buyers of Copper for Chilean Copper and Brazilian iron-ore.
7. China and India and Latin America are known to move up the value chain of things-which is the same as saying that they are supplying more and more finished goods to the world. As they make and supply these products-the developed world, which had a free ride on the cheap labor of these countries for a few hundred years, can't have it anymore. They have nothing to offer in exchange (the rapid accumulation of foreign reserves by the developing world Government is what is supporting this-the goods of developing countries are being exchanged for paper dollars and euros of the developed world by their silly central banks, but this needs to and will stop-see my earlier post on this).
The crisis in the developing world is difficult to explain from this theory. However, the explanation there I have is that it is the interrelation of the banking system and the silly accumulation of reserves by the developing world countries, mostly held in Government bonds of the developed world, which is actually hurting them now, because they have subsidized exporters at the expense of home use of their materials, and killed of importers. The importers in China and India find it more expensive to import useful things like technology, aeroplanes, etc. which could be used very productively there to increase the net production of the labor of these countries. Any encouragement given to exports is a discouragement given to exports and home use of these goods.
The interrelated of the banking systems means that all capital is going into city and real estate-leaving the rural areas and the mining and raw material producing areas of the world short of capital. Big banks are based in big cities like New York, San Pablo, Shanghai and Brazil-and they have transmitted the stupid lending practices to each other. They invest in big cities in real estate-but that can only go on if the city population keeps increasing and is well supplied by the raw materials from the countryside (food is a raw material for cities) and the mining and energy producing areas.
I will update and edit this post as time permits-but the crux of the argument is here. There are many other data points I will put to support the theory.
Labels: general commentary
posted by Sanjay "John" Gandhi at 6:09 PM
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