Empiricism and how far we are from it---markets and weight loss
He opened my eyes to brute empiricism, and I have taken it further to many walks of life, not just financial markets.
On financial markets-stock market is nothing but a game between humans. The numbers called stock prices keep going up and down; and other humans want to take your money. It hasn't got much to do with the economy---as much as they would like you to believe it. Maybe in the long term it is-but what is long term? If 25 years is long term-I dont want to "invest"--I am happy getting in and out at different times from the market-trying to be a trader catching the market's moves. It is only sometimes that I can see clearly where the game prices (stock market prices) are headed-and that's when I bet. Bet big, sometimes; that's been my general mantra for success. Probably 10% of my trades account form 90% of my profits over the last decade or so that I have been involved in the financial markets.
Now to weight loss. Here's some interesting empirical observations on it.
People will go on diets, start doing exercise, etc. etc. but I have found that they always revert back to their normal weight. From empirical observations-I can say with good confidence that the weight of a human being can't be changed by "conscious" behavior; it is probably determined by their genome.
For one human being-let's say a male-his weight is an increasing function of age. As he gets older; he will get weightier. The individual's weight will vary only maybe +-3-5% from this function-which is determined by their genes. They can't control it-it is the same as trying to control your temperature or your heart beat. For short periods of time they might lose or gain lots of weight (short period would be a few weeks) but then they will revert back to their natural weight, +-5%. Dieting, exercising etc. dont help-I know plenty of cases where they have failed to say that you can't lose weight by doing that. I also have plenty of cases where slim individuals I know take no special diets or do special exercises.
Another important observation is that just as you can't lose weight beyond maybe 3%, u can't raise it more than 3% either by conscious behavior (dieting, exercising). Their is a natural upper limit---regardless of the tasty food you have at hand.
Liposuction is probably a solution. But it is temporary-u will pick it back up.
These are some empirical observations on weight. Dont try to lose weight-u will lose that battle.
And don't believe in buy and hold; it's a game, stupid.
Sanjay
Labels: empiricism, taleb, weight loss

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